House of Representatives · Updated

to win the House

Democrats win a majority in of our simulations. The most likely outcome is about Democratic seats, with an 80% chance of landing between and . It takes 218 for a majority.

Every district

One hexagon per district, grouped by state and placed near its real location. Color shows our forecast. Hover for details and click a district for its full forecast. On a phone, pinch or tap + to zoom in, then tap a district to preview it. Lines are the new 2026 maps, including mid-decade redistricting in ten states.

How many seats each party wins

The most competitive districts

Districts where each party wins in at least 10% of simulations, closest first.

All 435 districts

"2024 pres." is the 2024 presidential margin within the district's 2026 lines (The Downballot). Ratings are our own probability bands: Safe above 95%, Likely 80–95%, Lean 60–80%, Toss-up in between.