House of Representatives · Updated

to win the House

Democrats win a majority in of our simulations. The most likely outcome is about Democratic seats, with an 80% chance of landing between and . It takes 218 for a majority.

Every district

One hexagon per district, grouped by state and placed near its real location. Color shows our forecast. Hover for details and click a district for its full forecast. On a phone, pinch or tap + to zoom in, then tap a district to preview it. Lines are the new 2026 maps, including mid-decade redistricting in ten states.

How many seats each party wins

The tipping point

In each of 20,000 simulations, we line up the districts the winning party took from its safest to its closest and find the one that gave it the 218th seat. A district's tipping-point chance is how often it was that seat; with 435 seats in play, no single district gets much of it. "Vote's sway" divides that chance by the votes we expect in the district, so a 10× district is one where a vote is ten times as likely to decide control as the average House vote.

The most competitive districts

Districts where each party wins in at least 10% of simulations, closest first.

All 435 districts

"2024 pres." is the 2024 presidential margin within the district's 2026 lines (The Downballot). Ratings are our own probability bands: Safe above 95%, Likely 80–95%, Lean 60–80%, Toss-up in between.