Josh Riley vs. Peter Oberacker polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 19th District)
Our forecast gives Josh Riley (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Riley +14.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Riley +7.7 and Riley +22.2. Incumbent: Josh Riley (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+1.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works