Senate · Updated

Democrats win a majority in of our simulations. Republicans hold 53 seats today and Democrats 47 (including two independents who caucus with them). Of the 35 seats on the ballot, Republicans are defending 22, so Democrats need a net gain of four. The vice president breaks ties.

The map

Florida and Ohio hold special elections to fill the rest of Marco Rubio's and JD Vance's terms. Nebraska's race pits Republican Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, with no Democrat on the ballot. On a phone, pinch or tap + to zoom in, then tap a state to preview it.

The path to 51

All 100 seats after the election, lined up from most Democratic to most Republican. The 65 seats not on the ballot are shown faded; the 35 races are ordered by the chance Democrats (or Osborn) win and colored by our rating. Democrats need the 51st.

How the Senate could split

Each bar is one possible split of the 100 seats; the percentage is how often it came up in 20,000 simulations. It takes 51 seats to control the Senate, and at 50–50 Vice President Vance breaks ties for Republicans.

Every Senate race