Senate · Updated
Democrats win a majority in
The map
Florida and Ohio hold special elections to fill the rest of Marco Rubio's and JD Vance's terms. Nebraska's race pits Republican Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn, with no Democrat on the ballot. On a phone, pinch or tap + to zoom in, then tap a state to preview it.
The path to 51
All 100 seats after the election, lined up from most Democratic to most Republican. The 65 seats not on the ballot are shown faded; the 35 races are ordered by the chance Democrats (or Osborn) win and colored by our rating. Democrats need the 51st.
The tipping point
Races don't break in order, so we also ask each of the 20,000 simulations: lining up the seats the winning party took from its safest to its closest, which one got it to a majority (51 for Democrats; 50 for Republicans, with Vance's tiebreak)? A race's tipping-point chance is how often it was that seat. "Vote's sway" divides that chance by the votes we expect in the race, so a 3× state is one where a vote is three times as likely to decide control as the average vote cast in this year's Senate races.
How the Senate could split
Each bar is one possible split of the 100 seats; the percentage is how often it came up in 20,000 simulations. It takes 51 seats to control the Senate, and at 50–50 Vice President Vance breaks ties for Republicans.