N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas vs. Kevin Hern polls and 2026 forecast (Oklahoma Senate)
Our forecast gives Kevin Hern (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Hern +26.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Hern +36.0 and Hern +16.0. Polling average: Hern +24.1 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Alan Armstrong (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+34.9.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works