Special elections · Latest race

When a seat opens up between regular elections, a special election fills it. Few people vote in them, so the result says a lot about which party's voters are eager to show up. We compare each result with how the same district voted for president in . Across races this cycle, the result has shifted by points on average. This is one of the three readings behind our national estimate.

The running average, cycle by cycle

The average shift across all special elections so far in each two-year cycle, updated with each new race. Past cycles are lined up with this one: for 2017–18, "Jan " stands for January 2017. Each line starts once 10 races are in, the point at which the model starts using this reading. Shifts are measured against the previous presidential election.

Every race this cycle

Each dot is one race; larger dots are U.S. House seats, the rest state legislative seats. Blue dots shifted toward Democrats compared with the district's presidential vote, red toward Republicans. The line is the running average.

Only races where both a Democrat and a Republican ran. "Result" is the Democrat's margin over the Republican (or the reverse) in the special election; "President " is how the same district voted for president.

What special elections said before, and what happened

Special-election results from The Downballot's special elections Big Board (formerly Daily Kos Elections), updated every morning. The 2023–24 cycle isn't included in the source data we use.