Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley polls and 2026 forecast (North Carolina Senate)
Our forecast gives Roy Cooper (D) a 98% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Cooper +10.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Cooper +4.2 and Cooper +16.1. Polling average: Cooper +10.2 across 44 polls. Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+3.3.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works