Marquita Bradshaw vs. Bill Hagerty polls and 2026 forecast (Tennessee Senate)
Our forecast gives Bill Hagerty (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Hagerty +23.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Hagerty +30.5 and Hagerty +16.4. Polling average: Hagerty +20.2 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Bill Hagerty (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+30.1.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works