Mary Peltola vs. Dan S. Sullivan polls and 2026 forecast (Alaska Senate)
Our forecast gives Dan S. Sullivan (R) a 54% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Sullivan +0.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Sullivan +5.5 and Peltola +4.7. Polling average: Peltola +1.5 across 23 polls. Incumbent: Dan Sullivan (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.7.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works