Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson polls and 2026 forecast (Iowa Senate)
Our forecast gives Ashley Hinson (R) a 53% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Hinson +0.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Hinson +6.2 and Turek +5.6. Polling average: Turek +1.3 across 28 polls. Incumbent: Joni Ernst (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.4.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works