Ed Markey vs. John Deaton polls and 2026 forecast (Massachusetts Senate)
Our forecast gives Ed Markey (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Markey +30.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Markey +24.1 and Markey +36.5. Polling average: Markey +24.0 across 11 polls. Incumbent: Ed Markey (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+25.9.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works