Jeff Merkley vs. David Brock Smith polls and 2026 forecast (Oregon Senate)
Our forecast gives Jeff Merkley (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Merkley +25.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Merkley +17.8 and Merkley +33.6. Incumbent: Jeff Merkley (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+14.9.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works