Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody polls and 2026 forecast (Florida Senate special election)
Our forecast gives Ashley Moody (R) a 96% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Moody +8.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Moody +14.5 and Moody +2.5. Polling average: Moody +6.8 across 16 polls. Incumbent: Ashley Moody (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.2.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works