James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton polls and 2026 forecast (Texas Senate)
Our forecast gives James Talarico (D) a 68% chance of winning (rating: Lean D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Talarico +2.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Paxton +3.7 and Talarico +7.8. Polling average: Talarico +2.6 across 54 polls. Incumbent: John Cornyn (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.9.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works