Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu polls and 2026 forecast (New Hampshire Senate)
Our forecast gives Chris Pappas (D) a 95% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Pappas +8.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Pappas +1.9 and Pappas +14.1. Polling average: Pappas +6.8 across 26 polls. Incumbent: Jeanne Shaheen (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+2.8.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works