Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins polls and 2026 forecast (Maine Senate)
Our forecast gives Troy Jackson (D) an 84% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Jackson +3.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Collins +1.3 and Jackson +9.1. Polling average: Jackson +2.1 across 24 polls. Incumbent: Susan Collins (R). 2024 presidential result here: D+7.1.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works