Peggy Flanagan vs. Michele Tafoya polls and 2026 forecast (Minnesota Senate)
Our forecast gives Peggy Flanagan (D) an 85% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Flanagan +5.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Tafoya +1.3 and Flanagan +11.3. Polling average: Flanagan +3.0 across 15 polls. Incumbent: Tina Smith (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+4.3.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works