Ben Ray Luján vs. Larry Marker polls and 2026 forecast (New Mexico Senate)
Our forecast gives Ben Ray Luján (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Luján +17.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Luján +10.3 and Luján +24.6. Polling average: Luján +16.9 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Ben Ray Luján (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+6.1.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works