Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall polls and 2026 forecast (Kansas Senate)
Our forecast gives Roger Marshall (R) a 73% chance of winning (rating: Lean R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Marshall +2.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Marshall +8.1 and Hamilton +2.9. Polling average: Hamilton +1.4 across 14 polls. Incumbent: Roger Marshall (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+16.4.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works