Mark Warner vs. Bert Mizusawa polls and 2026 forecast (Virginia Senate)
Our forecast gives Mark Warner (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Warner +18.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Warner +11.4 and Warner +25.8. Polling average: Warner +17.6 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Mark Warner (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+5.9.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works