Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers polls and 2026 forecast (Michigan Senate)
Our forecast gives Abdul El-Sayed (D) a 79% chance of winning (rating: Lean D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: El-Sayed +3.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Rogers +2.1 and El-Sayed +9.2. Polling average: El-Sayed +3.1 across 51 polls. Incumbent: Gary Peters (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+1.4.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works