Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton polls and 2026 forecast (Arkansas Senate)
Our forecast gives Tom Cotton (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Cotton +14.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Cotton +21.2 and Cotton +7.5. Polling average: Cotton +10.8 across 5 polls. Incumbent: Tom Cotton (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+31.3.
Senate forecast · How the forecast works