Fred Wellman vs. Ann Wagner polls and 2026 forecast (Missouri's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Ann Wagner (R) a 76% chance of winning (rating: Lean R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Wagner +3.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Wagner +9.7 and Wellman +2.8. Polling average: Wagner +2.0 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Ann Wagner (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+8.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works