Zach Dembo vs. Ralph Alvarado polls and 2026 forecast (Kentucky's 6th District)
Our forecast gives Ralph Alvarado (R) a 79% chance of winning (rating: Lean R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Alvarado +4.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Alvarado +10.5 and Dembo +2.5. Polling average: Alvarado +0.3 across 8 polls. Incumbent: Andy Barr. 2024 presidential result here: R+15.3.
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