Marcy Kaptur vs. Derek Merrin polls and 2026 forecast (Ohio's 9th District)
Our forecast gives Marcy Kaptur (D) a 60% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Kaptur +1.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Merrin +4.9 and Kaptur +7.2. Polling average: Merrin +4.0 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+10.7.
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