Joseph Morelle vs. Virginia McIntyre polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 25th District)
Our forecast gives Joseph Morelle (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Morelle +29.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Morelle +22.0 and Morelle +36.7. Incumbent: Joseph Morelle (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+18.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works