Tessa Lynn Hodge vs. Jay Obernolte polls and 2026 forecast (California's 23rd District)
Our forecast gives Jay Obernolte (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Obernolte +15.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Obernolte +22.7 and Obernolte +8.1. Incumbent: Jay Obernolte (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+19.9.
House forecast · How the forecast works