Tom Perriello vs. John McGuire polls and 2026 forecast (Virginia's 5th District)
Our forecast gives John McGuire (R) a 92% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McGuire +6.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McGuire +12.1 and McGuire +0.5. Polling average: McGuire +5.2 across 3 polls. Incumbent: John McGuire (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+12.4.
House forecast · How the forecast works