Chris Backemeyer vs. Mike Flood polls and 2026 forecast (Nebraska's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Mike Flood (R) an 89% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Flood +5.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Flood +11.6 and Backemeyer +0.3. Polling average: Backemeyer +0.4 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Mike Flood (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.2.
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