Don Leonard vs. Mike Carey polls and 2026 forecast (Ohio's 15th District)
Our forecast gives Mike Carey (R) an 89% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Carey +6.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Carey +12.1 and Leonard +0.2. Polling average: Carey +5.2 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Mike Carey (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+10.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works