Josh Harder vs. John McBride polls and 2026 forecast (California's 9th District)
Our forecast gives Josh Harder (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Harder +24.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Harder +16.9 and Harder +31.6. Incumbent: Josh Harder (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+11.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works