Richard Pan vs. Kevin Kiley polls and 2026 forecast (California's 6th District)
Our forecast gives Richard Pan (D) a 97% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Pan +11.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Pan +4.0 and Pan +19.1. Polling average: Pan +2.3 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Kevin Kiley. 2024 presidential result here: D+8.7.
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