John Mannion vs. Kailee Buller polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 22nd District)
Our forecast gives John Mannion (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Mannion +20.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Mannion +13.1 and Mannion +27.8. Incumbent: John Mannion (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+7.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works