Ilhan Omar vs. John Nagel polls and 2026 forecast (Minnesota's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Ilhan Omar (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Omar +63.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Omar +55.9 and Omar +70.3. Incumbent: Ilhan Omar (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+63.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works