William Lawrence vs. Tom Barrett polls and 2026 forecast (Michigan's 7th District)
Our forecast gives William Lawrence (D) a 55% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Lawrence +0.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Barrett +5.3 and Lawrence +6.5. Polling average: Barrett +1.7 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Tom Barrett (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+1.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works