LaShonda Holloway vs. Aaron Bean polls and 2026 forecast (Florida's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Aaron Bean (R) a 96% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Bean +10.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Bean +17.8 and Bean +3.0. Incumbent: Aaron Bean (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+12.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works