Jake Johnson vs. Brad Finstad polls and 2026 forecast (Minnesota's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Brad Finstad (R) a 78% chance of winning (rating: Lean R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Finstad +3.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Finstad +9.5 and Johnson +2.5. Polling average: Johnson +0.8 across 4 polls. Incumbent: Brad Finstad (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+12.2.
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