Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vs. Diamant Hysenaj polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 14th District)
Our forecast gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Ocasio-Cortez +44.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Ocasio-Cortez +37.0 and Ocasio-Cortez +51.5. Incumbent: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+32.4.
House forecast · How the forecast works