Blake Gendebien vs. Anthony Constantino polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 21st District)
Our forecast gives Anthony Constantino (R) a 93% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Constantino +7.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Constantino +13.5 and Constantino +0.9. Polling average: Constantino +0.9 across 7 polls. Incumbent: Elise Stefanik. 2024 presidential result here: R+20.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works