Paul Tonko vs. Ralph Ambrosio polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 20th District)
Our forecast gives Paul Tonko (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Tonko +27.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Tonko +20.4 and Tonko +35.3. Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+14.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works