Salud Carbajal vs. Bob Smith polls and 2026 forecast (California's 24th District)
Our forecast gives Salud Carbajal (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Carbajal +34.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Carbajal +27.0 and Carbajal +41.6. Incumbent: Salud Carbajal (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+25.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works