Jahana Hayes vs. Chris Shea polls and 2026 forecast (Connecticut's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Jahana Hayes (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Hayes +15.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Hayes +8.1 and Hayes +22.8. Incumbent: Jahana Hayes (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+5.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works