Carmela Conroy vs. Michael Baumgartner polls and 2026 forecast (Washington's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Michael Baumgartner (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Baumgartner +11.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Baumgartner +18.2 and Baumgartner +5.5. Polling average: Baumgartner +11.9 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Michael Baumgartner (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+11.1.
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