Jonathan Nez vs. Eli Crane polls and 2026 forecast (Arizona's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Eli Crane (R) an 87% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Crane +5.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Crane +11.2 and Nez +0.9. Polling average: Crane +5.4 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Eli Crane (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+15.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works