Bill Hill vs. Nick Begich III polls and 2026 forecast (Alaska's at-large House seat)
Our forecast gives Nick Begich III (R) an 89% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Begich +5.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Begich +11.5 and Hill +0.2. Polling average: Begich +8.9 across 11 polls. Incumbent: Nick Begich III (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.7.
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