Dan McKay vs. Stewart Cathey Jr. polls and 2026 forecast (Louisiana's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Stewart Cathey Jr. (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Cathey +26.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Cathey +35.0 and Cathey +18.3. Incumbent: Julia Letlow. 2024 presidential result here: R+34.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works