Jennifer McClellan vs. Robert Murray polls and 2026 forecast (Virginia's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Jennifer McClellan (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McClellan +44.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McClellan +37.3 and McClellan +52.0. Incumbent: Jennifer McClellan (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+33.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works