Ed Case vs. Adriel Lam polls and 2026 forecast (Hawaii's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Ed Case (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Case +44.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Case +36.9 and Case +51.5. Incumbent: Ed Case (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+25.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works