Paul Nolley vs. Darin LaHood polls and 2026 forecast (Illinois's 16th District)
Our forecast gives Darin LaHood (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: LaHood +17.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between LaHood +25.1 and LaHood +10.5. Incumbent: Darin LaHood (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+23.1.
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