Mary Allen vs. Mark Messmer polls and 2026 forecast (Indiana's 8th District)
Our forecast gives Mark Messmer (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Messmer +32.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Messmer +40.3 and Messmer +25.6. Incumbent: Mark Messmer (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+36.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works