Tim Kennedy vs. Dennis Hannon polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 26th District)
Our forecast gives Tim Kennedy (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Kennedy +36.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Kennedy +29.0 and Kennedy +43.6. Incumbent: Tim Kennedy (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+19.6.
House forecast · How the forecast works